Level Up Smart: The Ultimate Beginner’s Guide to Value Gaming in 2025
Bettors may have various strategies and methods for placing bets. While many see betting as a popular pastime, the introduction of value betting has made it more strategic than ever. Value betting has become one of the most popular strategies for maximising potential returns in online sports betting. It opens up new opportunities for bettors to identify situations where bookmakers offer odds with a profitable expected value and enhanced sportsbook promos.
This guide aims to understand value betting better, how it works, and how you can identify bet markets with a slight edge over the bookmakers by using the strategy.
What is Value Gaming?
Value betting involves identifying bets where the odds provided by bookmakers do not accurately reflect the true probability of an event occurring. It’s about finding situations where you believe the bookmaker has made a slight mistake in setting the odds, which can give you an advantage as a bettor.
The term “value” in this context refers to the true probability of the event happening. To determine true probability, you must conduct thorough research on the relevant markets and factors that could influence betting outcomes, allowing you to make informed judgments.
For example, you’ve researched a football player and found that he receives a yellow card in 5 out of 10 games. Based on this data, you conclude that he has a 50% chance of getting a yellow card, which means the true probability is 0.50. If bookmakers set the odds for a yellow card at an implied probability of 0.40, there is a value betting opportunity. This is because your assessment of true probability exceeds the bookmaker’s implied probability. When the true probability surpasses the implied probability, it indicates that a bet has a positive expected value, making it an educated bet, provided that all factors regarding the event are the same.
How to Detect a Value Game
Researching the market for previous trends and statistics can help you identify your value bets. You must analyse a betting market as much as possible to identify value bets. For example, suppose Liverpool is playing Manchester United, and you are looking to find a value bet for a full-time result. In that case, it is worth checking the form of both clubs, the home ground, the players available for selection, the meaning of the game, the league position and other factors. This information can prove pivotal for value betting as you need to calculate the true probability, and these elements can help with that. After concluding the true probability, you must research the bookies’ implied probability. You will calculate this by dividing the bookie’s decimal odds for an event by 1. This will give you the bookies’ implied odds.
Example of a Value Game
The bookmakers have Liverpool win priced at 2.5. These are the decimal odds. You should then divide 1 by the decimal number. This will get you to .40 .This number is the implied chance/probability the bookmakers have for Liverpool winning the tie.
After finding the bookies’ implied probability of winning, you should research markets to find your true probability for a Liverpool win. Hypothetically, after your research, you discover Liverpool has a 50% chance of winning. This should then be converted into a decimal, which equals .50. This is the true probability.
After calculating both the bookie’s probabilities and your probability, compare them. If you find the bookie’s odds lower than yours, you have identified a value bet. In this hypothetical case, the true probability of Liverpool winning is at .50. In contrast, the bookies have Liverpool winning at .40. The true probability is higher than the bookies’ implied probability, meaning it is a potentially profitable bet.
Expected Value
Value betting is a method of betting that depends on the expected value. If your value bet has a profitable expected value, you have likely found a strong value bet. Expected value is the average return your bet would accumulate on a large scale if it were all placed under the same fixed variables.
Formula of EV(Expected Value)
EV= (Probability of a win X amount you win) – (probability of a loss X the amount you will lose)
Final Thoughts
Value betting is an effective strategy that helps bettors make more informed decisions regarding their sports betting wagers. This sports betting method provides statistical justification for making bet stakes whilst capitalising on errors in the bookmakers’ odds when they are available. Although not every bet will be a winner, it’s crucial to understand the concept of expected value when placing your wagers. While value betting can be a solid approach, it’s important to note that not everyone will see returns immediately; it may require time and experience to refine your matched betting strategy.